The key holiday shopping statistics for 2026 come down to this: US online sales hit a record $257.8 billion in the 2025 season, and forecasters expect another 7.5% to 8.4% of online growth in 2026 even as total retail growth cools to roughly 4%. The story this year is not whether people spend, but how they arrive — one in five holiday visits is projected to come from an AI agent, and social shops are growing nine times faster than the rest of ecommerce. Below are 40 verified holiday shopping statistics for 2026, each paired with what it should change on your store.
By “holiday shopping season” we mean the November 1 through December 31 online window that Adobe and most analysts track — the eight weeks that decide the year for most ecommerce brands.
Holiday shopping statistics 2026: the headline numbers
US shoppers spent a record $257.8 billion online during the 2025 holiday season, up 6.8% year over year, according to Adobe Analytics. Twenty-five separate days cleared $4 billion in sales, up from 18 the year before.
The peak days still concentrate demand. Cyber Week alone drove $44.2 billion (+7.7%), led by Cyber Monday at $14.25 billion (+7.1%), Black Friday at $11.8 billion (+9.1%) and Thanksgiving Day at $6.4 billion. Electronics ($59.8B), apparel ($49.0B) and furniture ($31.1B) were the three largest categories.
For 2026, Bain & Company forecasts total US holiday sales will top $1 trillion for the first time, growing about 4.5%, with online outpacing in-store. Deloitte puts the full-season retail range at $1.70–$1.71 trillion. The takeaway for planning: budget for a bigger absolute market but a lower growth rate, which means share is won, not handed out.
Are retail sales expected to decrease in 2026?
No — retail sales are expected to rise in 2026, just more slowly. Deloitte’s 4% to 4.8% forecast and Bain’s 4.5% both point up, and online is the faster lane at 7.5% to 8.4%. Consumer sentiment, though, is doing the opposite: Salesforce found pessimism up 16% over last year, with 35% of shoppers actively trading down to cheaper alternatives. Rising dollars with falling confidence is the defining tension of the season — discounts and value framing will do more work than they did in 2024.
What the 2026 data changes: AI, social and payments
Three shifts separate 2026 from every prior holiday season.
AI agents become a real channel. Salesforce projects 20% of holiday ecommerce traffic will come from AI chat agents, 50% of shoppers will use an AI assistant somewhere in the journey, and 74% say they trust AI product recommendations. Adobe already measured a 693% jump in generative-AI referral traffic during 2025. If your product data isn’t clean and machine-readable, you’re invisible to the fastest-growing referral source — the same logic behind preparing for AI-driven storefronts.
Social commerce compounds. Social shops are growing at 9x the rate of traditional ecommerce and now account for 7–9% of orders, with social purchases up 17% year over year.
Buy now, pay later is mainstream. BNPL drove $20 billion in 2025 holiday spend (+9.8%), and 82.2% of those transactions happened on mobile — which itself was 56.4% of all online sales.
“Returns are no longer the end point of a transaction.” — National Retail Federation
2025 actual vs 2026 forecast: the numbers that drive your plan
| Metric | 2025 (actual) | 2026 (forecast) | What to do about it | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US online holiday sales | $257.8B (+6.8%) | +7.5% to +8.4% | Set a growth-share goal, not just a revenue goal | Adobe / Deloitte |
| Traffic from AI agents | +693% referral growth | ~20% of all traffic | Clean product feeds; structured data | Adobe / Salesforce |
| Social commerce | +17% orders | 7–9% of orders, growing 9x | Stand up shoppable social early | Salesforce |
| BNPL share | $20B (+9.8%) | Higher again | Offer BNPL at checkout | Adobe |
| Peak discount depth (electronics) | 30.9% | ~30% | Set your margin floor before promos | Adobe |
| Online return rate | 19.3% | ~19% | Budget returns into holiday CAC | NRF |
| Free-shipping subsidy cost | baseline | +$3B globally (+7%) | Re-test your free-ship threshold | Salesforce |
What are the top 5 busiest shopping days of the year?
For US ecommerce, the five busiest days are consistently Cyber Monday, Black Friday, the Saturday before Christmas (Super Saturday), Thanksgiving Day and Green Monday (the second Monday of December). In 2025, Cyber Monday ($14.25B) and Black Friday ($11.8B) were the two largest online days ever recorded, and a record 202.9 million Americans shopped over Thanksgiving weekend through Cyber Monday. Plan inventory, ad budget and site capacity around this cluster — and expect ad CPMs to spike hardest in exactly this window.
Returns, shipping and the margin squeeze
The season’s hidden line item is reverse logistics. US shoppers returned an estimated $849.9 billion in merchandise in 2025, and 19.3% of all online sales were sent back — versus 15.8% across all retail. On top of that, retailers will spend an extra $3 billion globally subsidizing free shipping in 2026, a 7% year-over-year cost increase. Both eat directly into the margin you just discounted, which is why acquisition efficiency matters more than raw traffic this year.
What to do with these holiday shopping statistics
The pattern across every 2026 forecast is the same: a larger market, thinner margins, and demand that increasingly routes through AI and social rather than paid search. That rewards brands that acquire customers efficiently and keep them. It’s also why lower-cost acquisition mechanics — referrals, bundles and group buying that brings in new customers without deep sitewide discounts — earn a bigger role as CPMs climb into Cyber Week. Start with the table above, pick the three stats that move your P&L most, and build this season’s plan around those.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the key holiday shopping trends for 2026?
The defining 2026 trends are AI-assisted shopping, with 20% of traffic coming from AI agents; social commerce growing 9x faster than the rest of ecommerce; earlier shopping; and value-seeking, as 35% of shoppers trade down to cheaper options. Total US holiday sales are forecast to top $1 trillion, up about 4.5%.
What are the latest statistics on Christmas consumerism?
US online spending hit a record $257.8 billion over the 2025 holiday season, up 6.8% year over year, with 25 days topping $4 billion. Cyber Monday alone drove $14.25 billion. Buy now, pay later added $20 billion, and 56.4% of purchases came from mobile devices.
How much will ecommerce sales grow during the 2026 holiday season?
US online holiday sales are forecast to grow 7.5% to 8.4% in 2026, outpacing total retail growth of roughly 4% to 4.8%. That would push online spending toward $280–$319 billion for the November–December window, with mobile driving about 57% of it.
What percentage of holiday shoppers will use AI in 2026?
Salesforce projects that 20% of holiday ecommerce traffic will originate from AI chat agents in 2026, and 50% of shoppers say they will use an AI assistant somewhere in their buying journey. Nearly 30% plan to use generative AI specifically to research products and compare prices.